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Renewable Energy Analysis: When It’s About the Politics, Not the Grid

Sean Salleh 10 Oct 2013 Energy and environment

How much will renewable energy replace conventional energy this year? Next year? In ten, twenty or more years? Which countries will switch to renewable energy when? To understand how the future may map out, we can build models with Analytica...

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Do Decision Support Systems Tend to Prevent or Incite Healthcare Mistakes?

Sean Salleh 09 Oct 2013 Modeling methods

Nobody is likely to disagree with the notion that decision support systems in healthcare are there to help people make better decisions. When things work well, it is capable of producing relevant results from complex datasets and preventing errors from...

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Operational Risk Scenario Analysis: If Modeling Processes and Systems Is Difficult, Try People

Sean Salleh 08 Oct 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Operational risk scenario analysis may sound like a mouthful, but here’s what it’s all about. Firstly, operational risk is the risk to a business of loss from processes, systems and people. While this includes external events, it typically...

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Which Data Model Will Work Best for Big Data?

Sean Salleh 07 Oct 2013 Modeling methods

In the old days (say, pre-Apple iPhone), you could be cool about your data model. Relatively speaking, there wasn’t that much variety in the data to be had in legacy databases or over the web. Straightforward relationships between pieces...

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How Monte Carlo Simulation Fights the Curse of Dimensionality

Sean Salleh 04 Oct 2013 Risk and uncertainty

The Curse of the Mummy? Already tackled with Lon Chaney in 1944. The Curse of Monkey Island? Thousands of PC gamers have beaten you to it. The Curse of Fatal Death? Doctor Who has it under control. But the Curse of...

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Computer Industry Analysis: Can We Estimate the PC Market’s Time of Death?

Sean Salleh 03 Oct 2013 Modeling methods

Will the PC market ever die, or will it simply be reduced, and then stabilize as a core of diehard PC users who refuse to give up expansion slots, a keyboard and a ‘real’ mouse? Anybody wanting to answer...

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Decision Tree Analysis in Healthcare and Sensitivity Analysis Extensions

Sean Salleh 02 Oct 2013 Modeling methods

Decision tree analysis in healthcare can be applied when choices or outcomes of treatment are uncertain, and when such choices and outcomes are significant (wellness, sickness, or death). The idea of assigning values to states of health might seem strange:...

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Business Process Re-engineering: What's Old Is New Again

Sean Salleh 01 Oct 2013 Modeling methods

Many business philosophies rise and fall in popularity, and business process reengineering (BPR) is one of them. Publicized and promoted in the early 1990s, its fundamental premise was that too much of the work done in companies was of no...

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Expert Elicitation and Probability Assessment through Treatment of Uncertainty

Sean Salleh 30 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Wherein lies the uncertainty with experts – in the situation that is being assessed or in the assessment itself? Expert elicitation and probability assessment can be a useful adjunct to empirical data on a problem or opportunity. However, the inherent...

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Renewable Energy Market Predictions – Pick a Scenario, Any Scenario…

Sean Salleh 27 Sep 2013 Energy and environment

Modelers have been busy recently making renewable energy market predictions. However their forecasts vary, sometimes significantly. This may be a reflection of the different assumptions being made: for instance, in terms of programs to support renewable energy being started or...

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