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Rob Brown

Robert D. Brown III is the President of Incite! Decision Technologies LLC (, a consultancy supporting senior decision-makers facing complex, high-risk opportunities. These opportunities usually include strategic planning, project selection, planning & risk management, and project portfolio analysis & management.

Robert’s twenty-plus-year career has been devoted to providing solutions to clients’ complex problems by employing creative thinking and advanced quantitative business, engineering, and systems analysis. His client experience spans diverse industrial and commercial fields including petroleum & chemicals, energy, utilities, supply chain & logistics, pharmaceuticals, electronics manufacturing, telecommunications, IT, commercial real estate, federal agencies, and education.

Through Incite!, Robert delivers analysis, decision support tools and systems, and training in decision-making and risk management with the goal to help his clients measure the value and the risk associated with the important decisions they face in order to make informed trade-offs and choices. He has also been a regular Analytica training resource for Lumina for over a decade.

Robert graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology in 1992 with a Bachelors of Mechanical Engineering.

An Interesting Christmas Gift

Rob Brown 07 Jan 2015 Risk and uncertainty

Over the holidays, the New York Times delivered an unusual juxtaposition of headlines and content, and apparent lack of self-awareness, to illicit such a hearty chuckle from its readers as to make the cheerful Old Saint jealous.

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The Value of Knowing What You Don't Know

Rob Brown 11 Jul 2014 Case studies and applications, Risk and uncertainty

Few of us really like uncertainty. It fills us with dread. It frustrates our planning efforts. It makes analyzing its effects complex. After all, where in a spreadsheet do you put uncertain values for revenue or costs? Admittedly, accounting for...

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Never Tell Me the Odds?

Rob Brown 06 Mar 2013 Risk and uncertainty

In my last post, I discussed the meaning of expected value (EV) and how it's useful for comparing the values of choices we could make when the outcomes we face with each choice vary across a range of probabilities....

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A Brief Explanation of Expected Value

Rob Brown 07 Feb 2013 Risk and uncertainty

When helping people analyze the risks they face in complex decisions, I frequently receive requests for an explanation of expected value, as expected value is a measure commonly used to compare the value of alternate risky options. I've found...

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Odd Couples: How Ice Skaters and Fireflies Tell Us Something About the Language of the Universe

Rob Brown 02 Dec 2012

The universe has always possessed the language it needs to conduct its own affairs. I don't think it could be otherwise. Because my daughter participates in competitive figure skating, my wife and I spend a lot of time at...

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Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas with Reverend Bayes

Rob Brown 06 Aug 2012 Analytica tips, Risk and uncertainty

A trip to Vegas, an evil clown, a bizarre coin, and a minister. What could go wrong? I commented in a footnote of an earlier post that one of my favorite - no, morally obligated - questions to ask when...

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Desperately Diving for Pearls of Great Price

Rob Brown 01 Jul 2012 Case studies and applications, Risk and uncertainty

You would be shocked to learn how fast you can make it to the bottom of a lake with a cinder block tied to your leg.  I know this rate, by my own empirical investigation, to be thirty feet...

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Ain't I Got a Right to be Wrong?

Rob Brown 01 Jun 2012 Risk and uncertainty

When the words came tumbling out of my mouth, I felt it all goin' south, But I kept on talkin' 'Til you started walking. Now I'm trying to dig my way out. Ain't I got a right to...

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Do Risk Analysts Dream of Electron Microscopes?

Rob Brown 30 Apr 2012 Analytica tips, Risk and uncertainty

From as early as I can remember, I have always wanted to be a scientist.  Indeed, while most kids my age were doing normal, healthy kid things on summer afternoons, like engaging in war games or playing with anatomically...

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How a 1979 MG Midget Taught Me to Love Risk Analysis

Rob Brown 28 Mar 2012 Risk and uncertainty

At the tender age of 17 I sold my soul to a 1979 MG Midget.  Or, at least I sold my body into indentured servitude to it.  I spent my entire earnings from two prior summer jobs and my part...

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