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Renewable Energy Market Predictions – Pick a Scenario, Any Scenario…

Sean Salleh 27 Sep 2013 Energy and environment

Modelers have been busy recently making renewable energy market predictions. However their forecasts vary, sometimes significantly. This may be a reflection of the different assumptions being made: for instance, in terms of programs to support renewable energy being started or...

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Sustainability Analysis According to Commoner’s Laws of Ecology

Sean Salleh 26 Sep 2013 Energy and environment

Sustainability analysis, the assessment of the degree to which natural and social systems can continue to thrive together, needs adequate rules and relationships to be defined, if a workable model is to be made. Some of the rules may be...

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Decision Support Software Limitations and How to Overcome Them

Sean Salleh 25 Sep 2013 Modeling methods

Spending money on decision support software may not be the issue; even if getting value for money is typically a priority. Accepting that decision support software may not be able to solve all problems is also possible. But the fact...

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Monte Carlo Analysis goes Mainstream with Women’s Tennis

Sean Salleh 24 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

You know something has entered the realms of popular culture when everybody speaks about it in the same breath as Hollywood blockbusters, their tax bills or smartphones. Well, OK… Monte Carlo analysis hasn’t quite made it that far, but...

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Definition of Risk Management and Damage to Reputation

Sean Salleh 23 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Risk to reputation is recognized as a concept. In commercial terms, the reputation of an enterprise influences the loyalty of its customers, the prices they are prepared to pay, and the quality of the employees it can attract. Quantifying it...

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Financial Modeling and the Speculator with Deep Pockets

Sean Salleh 20 Sep 2013 Modeling methods

In the financial modeling of global business, the perfect market is well-known paradigm. This is a market in which buyers and sellers have full information about the good or service concerned; pricing of that good or service then rises with...

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Risk Assessment - Is Limitation of It the Only Way to a Normal Life?

Sean Salleh 19 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Has risk become too much of an obsession? It’s difficult to condemn people for being meticulous, maniacal even, when it comes to assessing risks concerning health and safety. Yet others feel that risk assessment in general may have gotten...

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Multiattribute Decision Analysis and the Fun of Fuzzy

Sean Salleh 18 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Between the fuzzy sets of Lotfi Asker Zadeh and the fuzzy math of George W. Bush, what precisely are the implications for multiattribute decision analysis (MADA)? First of all, let’s define the ‘fuzzy’ we’re talking about here....

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Energy Forecasts and Why Traders May Know Best

Sean Salleh 17 Sep 2013 Energy and environment

There’s no shortage of predictions about energy. Governments, energy companies and independent observers all make energy forecasts. Sometimes they agree and sometimes they differ in their opinion, although for the major items like oil, there is apparently a general...

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The Application of Pharmaceutical Analysis for Better Meds and Prescriptions

Sean Salleh 16 Sep 2013 Modeling methods

Notwithstanding that Monte Carlo methods were first invented for atomic physics (bombs) and that pharmaceutics operates close by at a molecular level, the more popular application is in evaluating chances of commercial success for new drugs and treatments. Application of...

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