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How Monte Carlo Simulation Fights the Curse of Dimensionality

Sean Salleh 04 Oct 2013 Risk and uncertainty

The Curse of the Mummy? Already tackled with Lon Chaney in 1944. The Curse of Monkey Island? Thousands of PC gamers have beaten you to it. The Curse of Fatal Death? Doctor Who has it under control. But the Curse of...

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Computer Industry Analysis: Can We Estimate the PC Market’s Time of Death?

Sean Salleh 03 Oct 2013 Modeling methods

Will the PC market ever die, or will it simply be reduced, and then stabilize as a core of diehard PC users who refuse to give up expansion slots, a keyboard and a ‘real’ mouse? Anybody wanting to answer...

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Decision Tree Analysis in Healthcare and Sensitivity Analysis Extensions

Sean Salleh 02 Oct 2013 Modeling methods

Decision tree analysis in healthcare can be applied when choices or outcomes of treatment are uncertain, and when such choices and outcomes are significant (wellness, sickness, or death). The idea of assigning values to states of health might seem strange:...

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Business Process Re-engineering: What's Old Is New Again

Sean Salleh 01 Oct 2013 Modeling methods

Many business philosophies rise and fall in popularity, and business process reengineering (BPR) is one of them. Publicized and promoted in the early 1990s, its fundamental premise was that too much of the work done in companies was of no...

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Expert Elicitation and Probability Assessment through Treatment of Uncertainty

Sean Salleh 30 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Wherein lies the uncertainty with experts – in the situation that is being assessed or in the assessment itself? Expert elicitation and probability assessment can be a useful adjunct to empirical data on a problem or opportunity. However, the inherent...

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Renewable Energy Market Predictions – Pick a Scenario, Any Scenario…

Sean Salleh 27 Sep 2013 Energy and environment

Modelers have been busy recently making renewable energy market predictions. However their forecasts vary, sometimes significantly. This may be a reflection of the different assumptions being made: for instance, in terms of programs to support renewable energy being started or...

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Sustainability Analysis According to Commoner’s Laws of Ecology

Sean Salleh 26 Sep 2013 Energy and environment

Sustainability analysis, the assessment of the degree to which natural and social systems can continue to thrive together, needs adequate rules and relationships to be defined, if a workable model is to be made. Some of the rules may be...

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Decision Support Software Limitations and How to Overcome Them

Sean Salleh 25 Sep 2013 Modeling methods

Spending money on decision support software may not be the issue; even if getting value for money is typically a priority. Accepting that decision support software may not be able to solve all problems is also possible. But the fact...

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Monte Carlo Analysis goes Mainstream with Women’s Tennis

Sean Salleh 24 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

You know something has entered the realms of popular culture when everybody speaks about it in the same breath as Hollywood blockbusters, their tax bills or smartphones. Well, OK… Monte Carlo analysis hasn’t quite made it that far, but...

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Definition of Risk Management and Damage to Reputation

Sean Salleh 23 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Risk to reputation is recognized as a concept. In commercial terms, the reputation of an enterprise influences the loyalty of its customers, the prices they are prepared to pay, and the quality of the employees it can attract. Quantifying it...

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