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Desperately Diving for Pearls of Great Price

Rob Brown 01 Jul 2012 Case studies and applications, Risk and uncertainty

You would be shocked to learn how fast you can make it to the bottom of a lake with a cinder block tied to your leg.  I know this rate, by my own empirical investigation, to be thirty feet...

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Ain't I Got a Right to be Wrong?

Rob Brown 01 Jun 2012 Risk and uncertainty

When the words came tumbling out of my mouth, I felt it all goin' south, But I kept on talkin' 'Til you started walking. Now I'm trying to dig my way out. Ain't I got a right to...

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Do Risk Analysts Dream of Electron Microscopes?

Rob Brown 30 Apr 2012 Analytica tips, Risk and uncertainty

From as early as I can remember, I have always wanted to be a scientist.  Indeed, while most kids my age were doing normal, healthy kid things on summer afternoons, like engaging in war games or playing with anatomically...

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Is the media wrong about how many Mega-Million tickets were sold?

Lonnie Chrisman 01 Apr 2012 News, Risk and uncertainty

A few days ago on this blog, in Binomial distribution and Mega-Millions Lottery ROI, I wrote about statistically predicting the number of winners in a lottery, and the impact this has on the mean return-on-investment of a lottery ticket purchase...

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Binomial distribution and Mega-Millions Lottery ROI

Lonnie Chrisman 29 Mar 2012 Analytica tips, News, Risk and uncertainty

As of this morning, the Mega-Millions lottery for this week is at a record-setting grand prize level of $540M (when taken in installments) or $389M lump sum payout.   The odds of any given ticket winning is 1 in 175,711,536....

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How a 1979 MG Midget Taught Me to Love Risk Analysis

Rob Brown 28 Mar 2012 Risk and uncertainty

At the tender age of 17 I sold my soul to a 1979 MG Midget.  Or, at least I sold my body into indentured servitude to it.  I spent my entire earnings from two prior summer jobs and my part...

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Percentile Contour Plots

Lonnie Chrisman 14 Mar 2012 Analytica tips

I saw a graph today that I thought was pretty cool and thought I'd share it here.  In his Analytica model, Andrew DeBenedictis of E3 created a depiction energy usage percentiles by time of day in each month...

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Analytica embraces Cloud Computing with 4.4 Release

Sean Salleh 14 Feb 2012 Analytica tips, News

At Lumina, we are all excited about the recent release of Analytica 4.4 and some of the new and improved features it offers. Over a series of blog entries, we will cover some of the noteworthy features of 4.4. This post is...

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Combination of Assessed Distributions

Lonnie Chrisman 01 Feb 2012 Risk and uncertainty

Suppose you need information about the future population Metropolia City in the year 2020.  So you solicit two experts to provide assessments of this quantity and provide their expert judgments in the form of distributions as shown. Which assessment is...

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Marginal vs. Effective Tax Rates

Lonnie Chrisman 30 Jan 2012 News

Last week Presidential candidate Mitt Romney released his tax returns, and the news channels were abuzz with commentary about his effective federal tax rate of 13.9% on $21.7M of income.  I will refrain from my own commentary on his situation,...

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