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Testing hypotheses about causation

Lonnie Chrisman 17 Oct 2018 Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

In 2002, I developed a statistical framework for testing whether your data provides statistically significant support for the hypothesis that A causes B. I published only one conference paper with some colleagues on the idea before moving on to other things,...

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Efficient estimation of the expected value of information (EVI) using Monte Carlo

Max Henrion 04 Oct 2018 Modeling methods

The expected value of information (EVI) lets you estimate the value of getting new information that reduces uncertainty. At first blush, it seems paradoxical that you can estimate the value of information about an uncertain quantity X before you...

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How the strange Cauchy distribution proved useful

Lonnie Chrisman 19 Sep 2018 Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

On Tuesday I had an interesting exchange with Jorge Muro Arbulú, a professor in Peru, about the Cauchy distribution, which also called the Lorenzian distribution. Unlike most probability distributions you encounter, the mean and variance for strange distribution...

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How to call a Python function from Analytica

Lonnie Chrisman 03 Aug 2018 Analytica 5.0, Analytica tips, Modeling methods

I found it pretty easy to call a Python function from Analytica using COM automation. The COM integration functionality comes included with the Analytica Enterprise edition. In this blog posting, I'll show you the basics...

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World Cup Soccer. How much does randomness determine the winner?

Lonnie Chrisman 16 Jul 2018 Modeling methods, News, Risk and uncertainty

Yesterday France beat Croatia in the World Cup final. Congratulations to France for winning the world championship!  And also to Croatia for making it to the final after a spectacular sequence of surprise upsets!  Also yesterday, I overheard...

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Analytica and Systems Dynamics: Interview with Cory Welch

Max Henrion 07 Jun 2018 Analytica 5.0, Analytics and OR, Modeling methods

Cory Welch gave a paper on using Analytica at the International System Dynamics Conference on why and how he uses Analytica for system dynamics (SD) models.  He has extensive experience with systems dynamics, starting from his graduate studies at...

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Using the Analytica Decision Engine (ADE) from Python

Lonnie Chrisman 22 May 2018 Analytica 5.0, Analytica tips, Modeling methods

Today I interacted with an Analytica from Python, which for me was my first time doing so. To do so, I used the Analytica Decision Engine (ADE), which bundles the core Analytica engine as a Component Object Model (COM)...

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Adding alternative axis scales to a graph

Lonnie Chrisman 15 May 2018 Analytica 5.0, Analytica tips, Modeling methods

Starting with a graph that varies by Time in units of Seconds, I show how to configure the graph so you can quickly change the horizontal scale from Seconds to Hours, Days or Years. This video is 3 minutes 16 seconds, or 0.00227...

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What’s the best retirement account type for me? 401(k), IRA, Roth, other?

Lonnie Chrisman 11 Apr 2018 Analytica 5.0, Modeling methods, News, Risk and uncertainty

It's tax week here in the US, and like many other people, I have less than a week to finalize my tax returns. I also have some last minute decisions. Should I, or my wife, put money into a...

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How to simplify the IRS tax tables

Lonnie Chrisman 04 Apr 2018 Analytica 5.0, Modeling methods, News

The federal income tax in the United States uses a series of increasing tax brackets, so that those who earn more pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes. This is an example of a progressive tax. The idea...

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