October 2010

Thanks,
Paul Sanford
Analytica Newsletter Editor 

Analytica 4.3 Optimizer Rushes New Node

Now that the probation period following the orangutan incident has finally expired, the fraternity of Influence Diagram Shapes (IDS) had a kegger recently to welcome Constraint Node to the 4.3 Optimizer toolbar. He is pictured above wearing the ceremonial pledge fez. Although just a plebe, the new node has earned the respect of his peers by allowing Analytica Optimizer users to define constraint arrays using equality or inequality operators (=, <, >, <>, <=, >=) in standard expression form. This intuitive simplification is one of many new features in the new Structured Optimization framework. We are very excited about this impending new release which makes it easier to define optimizations while adding new capabilities usually reserved for high end optimization packages (sparse LP and QP matrices for example). The beta release of 4.3 will be available after a few more weeks of “testing.”

Decision model motivates action on California's ocean ecology

In the August newsletter we mentioned the Analytica decision model used by California’s Ocean Science Trust (OST) to evaluate the environmental impact of decommissioning offshore oil platforms. Now we are pleased to report passage of the Rigs to Reefs bill (California A.B. 2503) sponsored by Assembly Speaker John Perez. The PLATFORM decision support tool helped OST demonstrate that, in some cases, partial removal of oil platforms is a better alternative to full decommissioning if remaining artificial reefs can benefit local ecosystems. The bill allocates most of the cost savings to establish a special endowment for marine preservation.   George Steinbach, Executive Director of the California Artificial Reef Enhancement Program (CARE) congratulated the OST team saying, “Science can and should make a contribution to society and proof of that occurred last night.” Lumina is proud to have participated in this project and acknowledges decision analyst Surya Swamy who led the implementation effort.  Interested readers can experiment with the decision model and learn more about the project here. 

INFORMS 2010 just around the corner!

The annual meeting for the Institute of Operations Research and Management Sciences (INFORMS) will be held this year in Austin, TX on November 7th - 10th. Lumina will host the following presentations:

Dr. Max Henrion session on avoiding surprises in energy forecasting:
Comparing historical forecasts of energy consumption to actual values often reveals unanticipated surprises. Max will use the probabilistic ATEAM decision model to explore the effects that disturbances in fuel markets and technology developments may have on the US vehicle fleet.

Decision Analyst Surya Swamy on using Analytica to go beyond the limits of spreadsheet modeling:
Surya will give an introductory demonstration of Analytica's influence diagram environment as an alternative to spreadsheets. This session will be informative to anyone who has tried to model with spreadsheets and encountered the inherent limitations of this approach.

Dr. Lonnie Chrisman on Transparency and Flexibility in Optimization Models:
Optimization models traditionally use cryptic coding and can be cumbersome to develop. Lonnie will demonstrate powerful new enhancements in Analytica Optimizer 4.3 that enable modelers to build models easily and collaborate more effectively using a visual influence diagram environment.

Stop by and visit us at Booth #13. We hope that you will take time to visit us in Austin. More details available here. 

Explore the world of 21st Century Risk Modeling with Sam Savage

Popular management science author and Stanford professor Sam Savage will present seminars outlining new trends in risk modeling in San Francisco December 2nd, Chicago December 9th, New York January 13th, and London May 12th. Dr. Savage’s previous talks have attracted audiences from a wide range of disciplines. No statistical expertise is assumed. But for those who do have a solid background in statistics, Dr. Savage promises it will take less than an hour to repair the damage. Attendees will receive a free copy of XLSim 3 simulation software (a $199 value) and a copy of Dr. Savage’s book The Flaw of Averages. Readers of this newsletter will receive a 10% discount off the registration price: $395 US, $495 London. Reference promotion code lu9p8x. For more details on this seminar series see www.21stcenturyrisk.com