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The spreadsheet was the first "killer app", the application
which led to millions of people buying their first personal computers
in the early 1980s. Spreadsheets were a brilliant innovation for
replacing accountants' paper spreadsheets. But, they are poorly
suited for serious quantitative modeling - for business models and
policy analysis. Empirical studies show that more than half of spreadsheets
in regular operational use have serious errors. Twenty-five years
after the release of VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet, it is time
for something better.
This paper describes ten major deficiencies of spreadsheet applications,
with examples using Microsoft Excel. It shows how these problems
lead to high error rates, lack of transparency, gross inefficiency,
inflexibility, and inadequate handling of multiple dimensions and
uncertainty. For each problem, it shows how to cure it with software
designed specifically for serious quantitative modeling, using examples
from Analytica.
Max Henrion, PhD, the CEO of Lumina and originator
of Analytica
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