Authors
Resources for The Future
Erin Mansur
Lumina Decision Systems
Rich Sonnenblick
Jason Harlan
Summary
The incorporation of the new emissions data allows users of TAF to benefit from the new emissions model without enduring the extended execution times of the emissions model in Analytica (several hours). Unlike the emissions model, the TAF model executes in a few minutes on a Pentium class computer. Thus, model users may readily explore the implications of the emissions profiles on their desktop computers. A screen shot of the TAF model regulatory scenario selector module is given below.
From this module, one of seven predefined scenarios (combinations of a base regulatory case and a comparison case) may be explored. The Default Scenario and the alternatives described as deviations from the default include the following:
- Default: a comparison of emissions with and without Title IV with Trading. Plants retire when 70 years old and electricity demand grows at 1% p.a. This scenario also includes banking, bonus allowances, 40 year nuclear plant retirement, and low coal transportation costs.
- High Growth: assumes demand grows at 3% p.a.
- Early Retirement: assumes plants retire when 60 years old.
- Aggressive Low Sulfur Program: assumes coal transportation costs are lower. To operationalize this, the transportation escalation rate is changed from 0.75% and 0.5% for Eastern and Western coals to -0.8% for both. (Note that the Visual Basic version of the emission model used a single escalation rate for mine mouth coal supply and transportation. The Analytica version of the emission model breaks this out into two separate rates.) Also, the coal escalation rate was changed from 0.75% and 0.5% for Eastern and Western coals to -1.5% for both. The "Freight on Board" costs were changed from 32 and 10.86 for Eastern and Western to 28 and 9, respectively.
- No Trading: assumes permit trading is disallowed.
- New PM Standard: assumes a more stringent particulate matter standard is promulgated in 2005, resulting in a 50% reduction in allowances in 2005 and beyond.
- EPA: uses the EPA sponsored emissions estimates generated by the consulting firm Hagler-Bailly. (Hagler Bailly. 1995. Human Health Benefits Assessment of the Acid Rain Provisions of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. Prepared by Hagler Bailly Consulting, Inc., Boulder, Colorado, under subcontract to ICF Incorporated, Fairfax, Virginia, for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Acid Rain Division. Final Report.)
Download the stand-alone TAF Emissions Model (Windows or Mac compression). Requires Analytica
Download a summary of the TAF Emissions Model in Acrobat format. This includes instructions on how to import data from the Emissions Model into the TAF model. Requires Adobe Acrobat
Download the complete TAF User's Guide (300+pp.) in Acrobat format. Requires Adobe Acrobat
