Call (+1) 650-212-1212

Blog

Welcome to the Lumina blog!

Analytica 5.2 released

Lonnie Chrisman 28 Mar 2019

We are proud to announce the release of Analytica and ADE 5.2!  To upgrade from Analytica 5.1, just download the installer from the Analytica Downloads page and run it. Takes about a minute. It uses your same subscription, so no license...

More »

Plotting over a Google Map

Lonnie Chrisman 19 Mar 2019 Analytica 5.0, Analytica tips, Energy and environment, Modeling methods

I added a cool example model in the most recent Analytica 5.2 beta build. As a taste, here is what the result graph for the variable Generation Capacity looks like: It uses symbol size to depict the generation capacity and...

More »

An Optimal Valentine’s Date

Kim Mullins 14 Feb 2019 Modeling methods

“You know, Valentine’s Day reminds me of the optimal stopping problem.” Not sure if this phrase was uttered elsewhere, but, this is the sort of water cooler conversations at Lumina HQ. I had a recent conversation...

More »

How to update y = m x + b with new data

Lonnie Chrisman 30 Jan 2019

Abstract: Bayesian linear regression made super easy and intuitive! You arrive in a new city for the first time, and you'll need to consider taking a taxi as one of your options for getting around. Given your prior experience...

More »

Analytica 5.2 beta

Kim Mullins 11 Jan 2019

Analytica 5.2 is now in beta! We invite all users with an active subscription to 5.1 to participate in the beta. Learn more about features we're introducing in 5.2 here, and get the latest beta build here. As someone who really...

More »
What to do when your model results are ridiculous?

What to do when your model results are ridiculous?

Max Henrion 12 Nov 2018 Analytics and OR, Case studies and applications, Energy and environment, Modeling methods, News

Experienced analysts and modelers know that “Oh shit!” moment all too well. You inspect the first results from your new model and they are obviously wrong. They are an order of magnitude off from what you expected. Or...

More »

Testing hypotheses about causation

Lonnie Chrisman 17 Oct 2018 Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

In 2002, I developed a statistical framework for testing whether your data provides statistically significant support for the hypothesis that A causes B. I published only one conference paper with some colleagues on the idea before moving on to other things,...

More »

Efficient estimation of the expected value of information (EVI) using Monte Carlo

Max Henrion 04 Oct 2018 Modeling methods

The expected value of information (EVI) lets you estimate the value of getting new information that reduces uncertainty. At first blush, it seems paradoxical that you can estimate the value of information about an uncertain quantity X before you...

More »

Lumina at INFORMS 2018 in Phoenix

Kim Mullins 02 Oct 2018 Case studies and applications, News

We'll have a have a few events at this year's annual INFORMS meeting, held in Phoenix, AZ this November. In addition to our Lumina Decision Systems booth #56 in the Exhibition Hall (come by and say hello!), we'll...

More »

How the strange Cauchy distribution proved useful

Lonnie Chrisman 19 Sep 2018 Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

On Tuesday I had an interesting exchange with Jorge Muro Arbulú, a professor in Peru, about the Cauchy distribution, which also called the Lorenzian distribution. Unlike most probability distributions you encounter, the mean and variance for strange distribution...

More »