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Financial Modeling and the Speculator with Deep Pockets

Sean Salleh 20 Sep 2013 Modeling methods

In the financial modeling of global business, the perfect market is well-known paradigm. This is a market in which buyers and sellers have full information about the good or service concerned; pricing of that good or service then rises with...

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Risk Assessment - Is Limitation of It the Only Way to a Normal Life?

Sean Salleh 19 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Has risk become too much of an obsession? It’s difficult to condemn people for being meticulous, maniacal even, when it comes to assessing risks concerning health and safety. Yet others feel that risk assessment in general may have gotten...

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Multiattribute Decision Analysis and the Fun of Fuzzy

Sean Salleh 18 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Between the fuzzy sets of Lotfi Asker Zadeh and the fuzzy math of George W. Bush, what precisely are the implications for multiattribute decision analysis (MADA)? First of all, let’s define the ‘fuzzy’ we’re talking about here....

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Energy Forecasts and Why Traders May Know Best

Sean Salleh 17 Sep 2013 Energy and environment

There’s no shortage of predictions about energy. Governments, energy companies and independent observers all make energy forecasts. Sometimes they agree and sometimes they differ in their opinion, although for the major items like oil, there is apparently a general...

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The Application of Pharmaceutical Analysis for Better Meds and Prescriptions

Sean Salleh 16 Sep 2013 Modeling methods

Notwithstanding that Monte Carlo methods were first invented for atomic physics (bombs) and that pharmaceutics operates close by at a molecular level, the more popular application is in evaluating chances of commercial success for new drugs and treatments. Application of...

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Energy Technology Predictions that Really Will Come True

Sean Salleh 13 Sep 2013 Energy and environment

History repeats itself, so the saying goes. If so, energy technology predictions would be easy to make. However, given the difficulty of predicting next year’s fashion trends, let alone the technologies that will power the world for the next...

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Decision Tree Software: Using Analytica as a Powerful Alternative

Sean Salleh 12 Sep 2013 Modeling methods

When analyzing a situation or a problem, should you draw a decision tree or should you map out an influence diagram? If you have decision tree software, you may (for reasons of availability) be swayed in the direction of the...

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Business Impact Analysis for Disaster Recovery Planning And Beyond

Sean Salleh 11 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Business impact analysis (BIA) is a stage in the disaster recovery planning process, in which organizations seek to prepare for business interruptions with a plan to surmount them as quickly and effectively as possible. BIA is the process of understanding...

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Influence Diagrams and a Darwinian Take on Decision Support Graphics

Sean Salleh 10 Sep 2013 Modeling methods

Like biological species, the graphics used in decision support have a story to tell of origins, evolution and even a few missing links. Influence diagrams represent one of the more evolved forms of these graphics. Clear and simple to understand,...

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Enterprise Risk Management And Handling Concentration Risk

Sean Salleh 09 Sep 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Concentration risk is a term that is used frequently in financial institutions to describe a risk that is significantly greater than others; for example, lending a high amount of money to a certain category of customers. The concept can be...

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