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Measuring Uncertainty in Economics: Chicken or Egg?

Sean Salleh 26 Aug 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Conventional wisdom has long held that uncertainty is a cause of weakening in an economy. The theory goes that uncertainty first causes people and companies wait and see before taking decisions, and that this then in turn has an economic...

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OR Methods: The Neural Network Misnomer

Sean Salleh 23 Aug 2013 Analytics and OR

The brain in a box it is not.  In terms of OR methods, ‘the neural network’ is a far more modest idea than straight AI, but it is of practical use, nonetheless. While it is true that the...

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Using Operations Research for “Look-Ahead” Inventory Policies

Sean Salleh 22 Aug 2013 Analytics and OR

How much inventory is held in the United States? If you count finished goods, partially finished goods and the raw materials needed to make those goods, there is over $4,000 of stock for every person in the country – or over...

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How Business Intelligence Helps You Avoid Delay and Boost Results

Sean Salleh 21 Aug 2013 Modeling methods

Perception is not always reality. When business intelligence is often perceived by users as a ready-to-use window on their PC screen that will answer all their questions, the reality might be that the real heavy lifting still needs to be...

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Experimenting with Business Analytics

Sean Salleh 20 Aug 2013 Modeling methods

How do you see the business analytics trio of descriptive, predictive and decision analytics? If you see these activities as mechanical IT processes, you may well head off into time and motion territory to see how efficiently you can squeeze...

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Saving Time, Money, and the Environment: The Growing Importance of Early-Stage Energy Modeling

Sean Salleh 19 Aug 2013 Energy and environment

Which is better? A model to figure out how much energy you’re wasting, or a model to help you save energy from the outset? In a world that has become energy-conscious to a much higher degree in the span...

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Integrated Environmental Modeling – a Meeting of Minds

Sean Salleh 16 Aug 2013 Energy and environment

Real-world problems are interrelated and complex: getting to workable solutions means holistic thinking and collaboration. This is a basic premise of integrated environmental modeling, which seeks to encourage ‘transdisciplinarity’, an approach that recognizes that no single group of experts...

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Sensitivity Analysis: One at a Time or All Together?

Sean Salleh 15 Aug 2013 Risk and uncertainty

The whole is greater than the sum of the parts, say Aristotle and Gestalt psychology. The whole effect of combined factors of a model in terms of sensitivity may also be greater than the effect of any individual effect of...

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Uncertainty Analysis and Monte Carlo Methods

Sean Salleh 14 Aug 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Uncertainty analysis is often a prominent part of studies for sectors such as the environment. The uncertainty itself is determined by a number of elements. They include available measurements of data to be used as input, identification of extreme or...

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Can Back-Testing Improve Your Strategic Risk Management?

Sean Salleh 13 Aug 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Back testing is a favorite with those who want to test out a plan for the future with real data. The real data for the future are not (of course) yet available, however the data from the past are. So,...

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