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Integrated Environmental Modeling – a Meeting of Minds

Sean Salleh 16 Aug 2013 Energy and environment

Real-world problems are interrelated and complex: getting to workable solutions means holistic thinking and collaboration. This is a basic premise of integrated environmental modeling, which seeks to encourage ‘transdisciplinarity’, an approach that recognizes that no single group of experts...

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Sensitivity Analysis: One at a Time or All Together?

Sean Salleh 15 Aug 2013 Risk and uncertainty

The whole is greater than the sum of the parts, say Aristotle and Gestalt psychology. The whole effect of combined factors of a model in terms of sensitivity may also be greater than the effect of any individual effect of...

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Uncertainty Analysis and Monte Carlo Methods

Sean Salleh 14 Aug 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Uncertainty analysis is often a prominent part of studies for sectors such as the environment. The uncertainty itself is determined by a number of elements. They include available measurements of data to be used as input, identification of extreme or...

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Can Back-Testing Improve Your Strategic Risk Management?

Sean Salleh 13 Aug 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Back testing is a favorite with those who want to test out a plan for the future with real data. The real data for the future are not (of course) yet available, however the data from the past are. So,...

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Risk Management and VaR – Not Safe for Everybody?

Sean Salleh 12 Aug 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Value at Risk (VaR) rose to fame in answer to a number of financial disasters, including the 1998 failure of Long Term Capital Management. Much of the criticism at the time was that institutions were not performing risk management correctly. In...

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Decision Support Systems: an Extended Taxonomy

Sean Salleh 09 Aug 2013 Modeling methods

Slicing and dicing data for insights and conclusions is all part of the decision support process. But decision support systems themselves can be sliced and diced to segment them according to operation, application, malleability and organizational sector. User preference may...

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OR Analysis – Do You Speak My Business Language?

Sean Salleh 08 Aug 2013 Analytics and OR

In terms of academic pedigree, OR analysis has it all or pretty much. Underpinned by mathematics and endorsed by university faculties, it also has solid supporters among government agencies and the armed forces. And yet when it comes to business,...

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Measuring Uncertainty and Understanding Its Propagation

Sean Salleh 07 Aug 2013 Risk and uncertainty

I used to be uncertain, but now I’m not so sure. Whatever the cause, uncertainty is a fundamental part of the real world and has to be dealt with. By way of a definition, uncertainty is an unknown that...

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Five Business Intelligence Steps to Smooth Out a Rocky Road

Sean Salleh 06 Aug 2013 Modeling methods

In theory, business intelligence transforms the raw data of organizations into information useful to them at the click of a mouse. Dashboards are updated in real time to give enterprises precise, up to the minute information on sales, production, stock,...

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When Multiattribute Decision Analysis Needs Monte Carlo

Sean Salleh 05 Aug 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Multiattribute decision analysis (MADA) is by definition a complex matter. Trying to balance or optimize a number of criteria at the same time in order to make a decision is enough to try anyone’s patience. Efforts to resolve the...

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