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Estimating Risk: the importance of Scenario Analysis

Sean Salleh 28 Jun 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Scenario analysis is all about alternative worlds and parallel universes and may include black swans, but stops short of meteor strikes. Confused? Read on and we’ll find out what’s going on together. The name itself is a good...

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Monte Carlo Simulation Tips and Tricks

Sean Salleh 27 Jun 2013 Risk and uncertainty

The use of random numbers as input is a defining feature of Monte Carlo simulations. This is what turns a deterministic model into a stochastic one, although how those random numbers are generated in the first place also affects the...

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Applying Predictive Analytics in Enterprise Decision-making

Sean Salleh 26 Jun 2013 Modeling methods

You’d be surprised at some of the uses that companies make of predictive analytics – and perhaps at the kind of companies making them. Identifying soon to be pregnant women, discovering tax evaders, predicting pharmaceutical drug success rates… it...

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Improving your Quantitative Data with Expert Elicitation

Sean Salleh 25 Jun 2013 Energy and environment

Don’t have enough hard data to make a decision? Then have people vote on it. But not just any people – get the experts to vote on the matter and do it in a way that still allows you...

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Strategic Risk Management for the Enterprise

Sean Salleh 24 Jun 2013 Risk and uncertainty

What lies behind those three words – Strategic Risk Management? It’s a question worth asking because a) SRM is a relatively new field, and b) there is still confusion between SRM and ERM (Enterprise Risk Management). RIMS (Risk and...

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The Rise of Decision Analytics

Sean Salleh 21 Jun 2013 Modeling methods

Where did decision analytics come from? And where is it headed in the future? The term decision analysis was coined by Ronald A. Howard, Professor of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford University. However, the fundamental problems that decision analytics...

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The Art and Science of Business Intelligence

Sean Salleh 20 Jun 2013 Modeling methods

It’s the title of a book. But is it also a deeper observation about what it takes to put good business intelligence in place? Behind this apparently innocuous catch-all pairing (if it isn’t art and it...

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The Basics of Risk Analysis in the Enterprise

Sean Salleh 19 Jun 2013 Risk and uncertainty

Risky business – bad news? Not necessarily. While the word risk has a negative connotation for some, it’s a source of business opportunity for others. Good risk analysis and follow-on enterprise risk management (ERM) consider both the upside and...

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The role of Sensitivity Analysis in Energy and Environmental Modeling

Sean Salleh 18 Jun 2013 Energy and environment

Energy and environmental models are often complex. Sensitivity analysis is a natural choice to improve understanding of such models and to see which input parameters have the most influence on the output. It also helps analysts to understand the inner...

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Data Modeling 101

Sean Salleh 17 Jun 2013 Modeling methods

Think data modeling is just for the geeks? Think again! Even if deep down in the IT layers data models can make Egyptian hieroglyphs look like a Dr. Seuss book by comparison (like ‘The Cat in the Hat’ –...

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