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A Brief Explanation of Expected Value

Rob Brown 07 Feb 2013 Risk and uncertainty

When helping people analyze the risks they face in complex decisions, I frequently receive requests for an explanation of expected value, as expected value is a measure commonly used to compare the value of alternate risky options. I've found...

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Displaying indexes in balloon help

Lonnie Chrisman 18 Jan 2013 Analytica tips

In a meeting today, Paul Sanford suggested that it would be nice if Analytica would show the indexes of a variable when you hover over its node.  "I know how I can do that right now," I volunteered. I...

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Odd Couples: How Ice Skaters and Fireflies Tell Us Something About the Language of the Universe

Rob Brown 02 Dec 2012

The universe has always possessed the language it needs to conduct its own affairs. I don't think it could be otherwise. Because my daughter participates in competitive figure skating, my wife and I spend a lot of time at...

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Seeking Principal Analyst and Consulting Lead

Sean Salleh 13 Sep 2012 News

Lumina is seeking an experienced consultant in energy or environment to be a leader in our consulting group. You must have: A graduate degree in science, engineering, operations research, or other quantitative discipline Several years experience working as a lead...

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Analytica 4.4.3 Patch Release

Lonnie Chrisman 28 Aug 2012 Analytica tips, News

Today we announce the Analytica and ADE 4.4.3 patch release. The patch has an extensive number of fixes and improvements since the 4.4.2 release. We recommend that all Analytica and ADE 4.4 users install and start using 4.4.3. When you already have an earlier 4.4...

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Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas with Reverend Bayes

Rob Brown 06 Aug 2012 Analytica tips, Risk and uncertainty

A trip to Vegas, an evil clown, a bizarre coin, and a minister. What could go wrong? I commented in a footnote of an earlier post that one of my favorite - no, morally obligated - questions to ask when...

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Desperately Diving for Pearls of Great Price

Rob Brown 01 Jul 2012 Case studies and applications, Risk and uncertainty

You would be shocked to learn how fast you can make it to the bottom of a lake with a cinder block tied to your leg.  I know this rate, by my own empirical investigation, to be thirty feet...

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Ain't I Got a Right to be Wrong?

Rob Brown 01 Jun 2012 Risk and uncertainty

When the words came tumbling out of my mouth, I felt it all goin' south, But I kept on talkin' 'Til you started walking. Now I'm trying to dig my way out. Ain't I got a right to...

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Do Risk Analysts Dream of Electron Microscopes?

Rob Brown 30 Apr 2012 Analytica tips, Risk and uncertainty

From as early as I can remember, I have always wanted to be a scientist.  Indeed, while most kids my age were doing normal, healthy kid things on summer afternoons, like engaging in war games or playing with anatomically...

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Is the media wrong about how many Mega-Million tickets were sold?

Lonnie Chrisman 01 Apr 2012 News, Risk and uncertainty

A few days ago on this blog, in Binomial distribution and Mega-Millions Lottery ROI, I wrote about statistically predicting the number of winners in a lottery, and the impact this has on the mean return-on-investment of a lottery ticket purchase...

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