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Testing hypotheses about causation

Lonnie Chrisman 17 Oct 2018 Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

In 2002, I developed a statistical framework for testing whether your data provides statistically significant support for the hypothesis that A causes B. I published only one conference paper with some colleagues on the idea before moving on to other things,...

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How the strange Cauchy distribution proved useful

Lonnie Chrisman 19 Sep 2018 Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

On Tuesday I had an interesting exchange with Jorge Muro Arbulú, a professor in Peru, about the Cauchy distribution, which also called the Lorenzian distribution. Unlike most probability distributions you encounter, the mean and variance for strange distribution...

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World Cup Soccer. How much does randomness determine the winner?

Lonnie Chrisman 16 Jul 2018 Modeling methods, News, Risk and uncertainty

Yesterday France beat Croatia in the World Cup final. Congratulations to France for winning the world championship!  And also to Croatia for making it to the final after a spectacular sequence of surprise upsets!  Also yesterday, I overheard...

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What’s the best retirement account type for me? 401(k), IRA, Roth, other?

Lonnie Chrisman 11 Apr 2018 Analytica 5.0, Modeling methods, News, Risk and uncertainty

It's tax week here in the US, and like many other people, I have less than a week to finalize my tax returns. I also have some last minute decisions. Should I, or my wife, put money into a...

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Impact of Trump’s proposed Steel & Aluminum tariffs on US trade deficit

Kim Mullins and Lonnie Chrisman 06 Mar 2018 Analytics and OR, Modeling methods, News, Risk and uncertainty

This week, President Trump proposed new import tariffs on steel and aluminum. It seems as if the projected net impacts of these tariffs on the total US trade deficit and US economy depends largely on which news outlets you get...

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An Interesting Christmas Gift

Rob Brown 07 Jan 2015 Risk and uncertainty

Over the holidays, the New York Times delivered an unusual juxtaposition of headlines and content, and apparent lack of self-awareness, to illicit such a hearty chuckle from its readers as to make the cheerful Old Saint jealous.

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Latin Hypercube vs. Monte Carlo Sampling

Lonnie Chrisman 23 Jul 2014 Analytica tips, Analytics and OR, Risk and uncertainty

In a recent post on Linked In, David Vose argues that the advantages of Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) over Monte Carlo are so minimal that "LHS does not deserve a place in modern simulation software." [1]  He makes some interesting...

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The Value of Knowing What You Don't Know

Rob Brown 11 Jul 2014 Case studies and applications, Risk and uncertainty

Few of us really like uncertainty. It fills us with dread. It frustrates our planning efforts. It makes analyzing its effects complex. After all, where in a spreadsheet do you put uncertain values for revenue or costs? Admittedly, accounting for...

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Smart Grid Electricity Management and Decision Analytics

Sean Salleh 04 Dec 2013 Analytics and OR, Case studies and applications, Energy and environment, Modeling methods, Risk and uncertainty

To smart or not to smart, that is the question! Except, despite what our TV offerings often display, going smart is always the best choice. Like any human-made system, we should aim toward smart designs, and we need this for...

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Climate Change Effects and Econometric Electricity Demand Forecasting

Sean Salleh 02 Dec 2013 Analytics and OR, Energy and environment, Risk and uncertainty

Whether you find global warming as an ethereal notion only worthy of banter or,  like many scientists, a real phenomenon to be studied, the effects pose difficulty for practitioners to forecast the behavior of commodities like electricity and...

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